IDMC global disaster displacement risk modelling
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre · Apply by November 12, 2026
About this role
IDMC’s disaster displacement risk work complements its monitoring of past and current displacement by providing evidence on where and at what scale displacement may occur in the future. The Global Disaster Displacement Risk Model provides probabilistic estimates of displacement risk associated with different hazards and under current and future climate conditions. Through its collaboration with UNU-EHS and other technical partners, IDMC has progressively strengthened the model, including, through improvements to hazard and exposure data, vulnerability modelling, geographic resolution and the range of hazards considered. The existing collaboration has also supported the development of new approaches, including impact forecasting. The next phase provides an opportunity to consolidate these advances. IDMC has recently updated its historical displacement data, including improvements to the geographic specificity of displacement information. This provides a stronger empirical basis for updating and validating the model and strengthening national and subnational risk estimates. At the same time, methodological work undertaken during the current phase has identified promising areas for…